Protouring Raffle Poll

[Ralph LoGrasso]

Actually Tony you may be the one who is not getting it. Using your example and Jim's theory, the odds are better for the guy who has 9 of the 10 or 19 of the 20 tickets as opposed to the guy who just bought one. Like the NBA lottery that is weighted for the biggest season loser. But also like that lottery the long shot could still win. (Hence the guy w/ only one ticket could still win ala the Orlando Magic). But odds are not important to the raffle only to those buying the tickets. I would be in for 1 - $100 or 2 - $50.

I understand what you're saying, but from a simple mathematical standpoint, the odds are the same. The probability of someone winning is exactly the same whether you hold 1 out of 10 tickets or 2 out of 20, or 10 out of 100, etc... It's all the same. This is what Tony was saying in regards to capping the ticket sales. If you sell $1000 worth of tickets, the law of probabilty holds true whether you sell the tickets for $100, and everyone buys 1, $50 and everyone buys 2, or even $25 and everyone buys 4. Your chances of winning in each of the 3 scenarios is still 1 in 10.

As long as the ticket sales are capped, and you spend the same amount of money on tickets, no matter the price, your odds of winning will not increase. Ie: You buy $200 worth of tickets-- 2 @ $100 or 3 @ $50. Chances in a $65,000 raffle are 325:1 both times.