Google Lobbies Nevada to Allow Self-Driving Cars

[Tony_SS]

May you live in interesting times..

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/11/science/11drive.html

[Scott Parkhurst]

Makes you think about the long-term future, doesn't it?

People used to rely upon horses- now horses are pretty much playthings for those who adore them, and can afford them.

Will driving cars become a lost art, like horsemanship? Will people eventually stop owning cars, and just rely on a fleet of autonomous robot cars/trucks/vans?

Maybe- no one knows yet. But, if this technology catches on and becomes both common and reliable, I wouldn't be too surprised.

Until then (and afterwards...) I hope to be among those who choose to drive for the pleasure of it. Cars (in general) and custom cars (in particular) will probably become playthings of the rich. Crazy to think about, isn't it?

[parsonsj]

Will driving cars become a lost art, like horsemanship? Will people eventually stop owning cars, and just rely on a fleet of autonomous robot cars/trucks/vans? Many many people still own horses, and many many people are accomplished at riding horses. It's just that it's mostly art/competition rather than part of daily life, and horses are now mainly a pursuit of those with lots of disposable income. Isn't that the path our car hobby is already on?

I think the days of "I, Robot" will be here sooner than we think, and the daily driving of carbon-belching, baby-killing, noise-generating cars will then slide into history, just like the days of men with shovels cleaning the streets of New York.

I'm not advocating value or placing judgment. But driver-less cars (and planes, and trains) will be the new normal.

[Tony_SS]

Makes you think about the long-term future, doesn't it?

It sure does. It'll be interesting to see how the free market will accept or reject them. I can see them being a hit in large cities. One idea is that they could replace taxi's. You could order up a self driving taxi via your smart phone and have your route all set and paid for before you even step out to the curb. Another use is public transportation.. I think they could be benificial there and to professionals who need to 'shave, text, talk or work' during their commute. It will increase productivity.

Of course the other side in the distant future could be that authoritarian types would impose mandates that would label traditional autos 'dangerous' and thus leading to heavy taxation, regulation or outlawing them on public roads all together.

[moreHP]

I see several people on the road who cant drive their own cars very well so maybe thats a good thing for them!

[Tony_SS]

I see several people on the road who cant drive their own cars very well so maybe thats a good thing for them!

Yes! Good for them. Bad for the traffic patrol industry. It will pretty much wipe out any revenue gained from those violations! For that reason, I don't see these 'catching on' anytime soon.

[Scott Parkhurst]

I don't think gov't will 'keep' POVs around just to make money. Rather, I see them looking to new transportation solutions and charging taxes (or fees, if you're a republican- no taxes, y'know) to make money. They'll find a way.

I certainly agree with the need in urban areas first. At least for the cab-on-call idea you've described. That just makes sense. But will autonomous privately-owned vehicles become the norm in rural areas, too? There will have to be a transitional phase where the option of driving or letting the car take you is the norm for awhile. Long-term, I can see fully autonomous POVs becoming the norm- where kids won't even learn how to drive anymore since the autopilot is easier, safer, and cheaper (no need to insure young drivers anymore if they don't drive. Rather, the car will be insured no matter who is inside).

Like horses, drivers will probably become rare. Certainly a core group of passionate hobbyists will keep the skills and spirit viable, but I do feel that driving won't be a necessary skill anymore. Like horsemanship- it will simply be eclipsed by technology.

Roads will become safer. Accidents and injuries will drop dramatically. Drunk driving will become a memory of a bygone era. Bad weather won't affect commutes as much. Traffic jams and rush hours will be minimalized. People will be more concerned with communicating during the ride than any desire to drive themselves anywhere.

There will still be privately-owned cars, trucks, etc. Surely city dwellers will adapt first- as they have with public transportation and cab-based commutes. Less and less city dwellers own cars now anyway- it won't be a hard transition. Suburban and rural dwellers will keep buying new privately-owned vehicles- but auto-pilot will take them where they want to go. Dealerships will remain viable. The infrastructure we have will still work just fine.

Red Barchetta might still be in the future, but I think it's pretty far out there.

[406 Q-ship]

Weren't we all supposted to have flying cars by now anyway?

I don't believe there can be truely driveless vehicles, much like the auto pilot on a plane there is still a pilot just in case. Systems fail and what happens then........11pm news, a run away minivan runs down a sidewalk in front of a elementary school kill children, the passengers in the minivan were franticly texting the police to come during the inncident. Law makers look at ways pass a law that a special licesne will be required to operate vehicles to stop tragities like this in the future......

If Red Barchetta is the future I will either be the cool uncle or the rebel behind the wheel.:) To take a quote from C.Heston.."when they pry it from my cold dead hands."

[moreHP]

I want jetson car and I want it NOW!:yeah:

[shmoov69]

Not saying that it will never happen, but it surely won't be in out lifetime IMO. Waaaay too many variables to consider for it to be "across the board". Reminds me of The Running Man or atotal Recall or whatever it was called with Arnold. The government would love it tho! Total control!!

[bretcopsey]

Where's my Jetpack?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r1SCu9yiBlo

[DartorDemon]

IMO, this is gonna be just another novelty technology. Cars represent too much "freedom" for this to be the new normal. It completely defeats that when your daily driver essentially becomes about as fun as riding the city bus. And while more and more people are choosing econoboxes and S-box hybrids/electrics. There is still a level of enjoyment people get from actually driving.

However, if at most, i could see this becoming normal for the elderly.

[Derek69SS]

Cool, I want mine equipped with an alarm clock that wakes me when I get to work. An afternoon nap on the way home would be nice too. My daily driver is as boring as it gets... 99 Oldsmobile Intrigue V6/auto. I might as well be sleeping anyway.


Cars represent too much "freedom" for this to be the new normal. Tell them it'll make them safer, and the sheeple will give up freedom willfully. (example: TSA)

[mc84_zz4]

I predict that if the legislation goes through, the first month these are in operation, some distracted driver googling 'pancake house' will probably be distracted at the wheel while talking to a friend, and he will cause the 'google autonomous car' to crash into a bunch of other people, causing a major catastrophe, because nobody is paying attention.
The only way this would work is if the majority of transportation is automated, synchronized, and adaptive to a few idiots in the mix.

[parsonsj]

the first month these are in operation, some distracted driver googling 'pancake house' will probably be distracted at the wheel while talking to a friend, and he will cause the 'google autonomous car' to crash into a bunch of other people, causing a major catastrophe, because nobody is paying attention.They've been testing them already in California. I believe that a driver is present, but doesn't touch the controls. It's all unprecedented legally, since all the motor vehicle laws are written about the liability of the driver. Without a driver, the laws don't apply, which is why this is going to the Nevada legislature.

[parsonsj]

a run away minivan runs down a sidewalk in front of a elementary school kill childrenThat's a whole different meaning for the phrase "vehicular homicide".

[parsonsj]

I certainly agree with the need in urban areas first. At least for the cab-on-call idea you've described. That just makes sense. But will autonomous privately-owned vehicles become the norm in rural areas, too? There will have to be a transitional phase where the option of driving or letting the car take you is the norm for awhile. Long-term, I can see fully autonomous POVs becoming the norm- where kids won't even learn how to drive anymore since the autopilot is easier, safer, and cheaper (no need to insure young drivers anymore if they don't drive. Rather, the car will be insured no matter who is inside).

Like horses, drivers will probably become rare. Certainly a core group of passionate hobbyists will keep the skills and spirit viable, but I do feel that driving won't be a necessary skill anymore. Like horsemanship- it will simply be eclipsed by technology.

Roads will become safer. Accidents and injuries will drop dramatically. Drunk driving will become a memory of a bygone era. Bad weather won't affect commutes as much. Traffic jams and rush hours will be minimalized. People will be more concerned with communicating during the ride than any desire to drive themselves anywhere. I think that's a good prediction for how it will play out. Anybody up for guesses on timeframe? I predict by 2030 Scott's scenario is the norm.

[mc84_zz4]

I pray we do not see something like this, these are far too often already:
https://static1.pt-content.com/images/noimg.gif
The autonomous cars need to be adaptive to really recognize the hazards ahead of them.
NASA has been testing stuff for planet reconnaissance for years, and the private
industry has had unmanned vehicle challenges to stimulate the industry with $1M awards (or $10M?)
I think we are still far away from allowing this on the roads.
The unmanned robot car part is easy, the smarts and situational recognition are the setback.

[parsonsj]

I think we are still far away from allowing this on the roads.Too late. The Times says the Google car fleet has 140,000 miles of testing with at least 1000 of that completely autonomous, including freeway driving, Pacific Coast Highway driving, and city driving. It's already happening.

[rrunner68]

I don't see why some find this so far fetched. Last I heard, we had cars that park themselves, and the newer Benz have auto braking and other features. I think that this is a 20 year possibility.

[Off Duty]

I don't find it far fetched at all.
For a long assed, boring commute across the state on our certainly less than scenic interstate system, I'd do it in a heartbeat.
For around town or a drive in the country, I'll pass, thanks.

I can certainly see a place for them, especially with the elderly, infirm, or others who might otherwise be dependent upon others for transportation.
An elderly person may be unsafe to drive themselves, yet perfectly competent to tell the car where he/she wishes to go.
Could certainly make their lives more independent again:)


Too late. The Times says the Google car fleet has 140,000 miles of testing with at least 1000 of that completely autonomous, including freeway driving, Pacific Coast Highway driving, and city driving. It's already happening.

So they've actually taken these out in congested, urban traffic conditions, and tested them?
Throw that thing onto I95 around Miami, downtown NY with the cabbies that don't speak English, or for that matter, in downtown Tampa during about any time of the day, when people drive like fools, and let's see how they do then? (ROFLMAO).

Besides, hell Google can't even get the bugs out of their own damned search engines and such.
Why would I trust their technology to move my family around in traffic?

[parsonsj]

So they've actually taken these out in congested, urban traffic conditions, and tested them?Yes. In the San Jose area, and people drive like fools there too. :) There are videos all over Youtube, including one is a German city with traffic, buses, pedestrians, bicycles, etc.

[Tony_SS]

Yes I've seen videos of them testing on public roads as well. They have built in sensors to stop if something crosses the path. The reporter walked right out in front of the moving car and sure enough it slammed on the brakes w/o running into her. Pretty amazing. Give it 20 years and we'll see a lot of these on the roads.

[mc84_zz4]

...The Times says the Google car fleet has 140,000 miles of testing with at least 1,000 of that completely autonomous.....

1,000 out of 140,000 miles!, that is less than a 1% of testing being autonomous!
C'mon that is FAR from being 'production' ready.
To get to a 50% of tested on real life scenarios would be huge, and to be 'consumer ready'
would require many certifications.

Don't get me wrong, I applaud the effort, we can have automated roadways in something like
a Metro, subway, etc, but self directed cars are a few hurdles away from being ready.
Check out some of the manufacturing videos on the Porsche factory on YouTube, even with complex
routes and scheduling they work in a controlled environement very well.

Unfortunately in an an uncontrolled environment there are many more hurdles to deal with,
specially if you are driving something over 35-50 MPH, and all of the other vehicles are driven by
people with bad habits, distracted, too fast, bad weather, running red lights, wrong side, wrong way,
invading lanes, etc.
Just saying, there are many more variables to manage for safety purposes before this is consumer ready.
(Maybe all cars in the car-pool lane, taxi lane, commuter route, or a controlled area, etc)
We already have similar automated buses at the Orlando and Atlanta airports to name a few.


....Give it 20 years and we'll see a lot of these on the roads.
I agree, we could see that in 20 yrs, maybe even a little sooner, but these will be in R&D for a long time.

[parsonsj]

C'mon that is FAR from being 'production' ready.No one said these cars were production ready.


Unfortunately in an an uncontrolled environment there are many more hurdles to deal with,
specially if you are driving something over 35-50 MPH, and all of the other vehicles are driven by
people with bad habits, distracted, too fast, bad weather, running red lights, wrong side, wrong way,
invading lanes, etc.
Just saying, there are many more variables to manage for safety purposes before this is consumer ready.
We all know this. Google doesn't want to sell these cars in Nevada next week; as best I can tell, they are trying to get some legislative "cover" so they can conduct further testing in order to get to DOT approval. I've seen where a Google exec called this particular system "cruise control on steroids"; the idea being that a human driver is "supervising" but can text and make phone calls while en-route.

these will be in R&D for a long time.Absolutely. From the article Tony linked:

The company confirmed on Tuesday that it has lobbied on behalf of the legislation, though executives declined to say why they want the robotic cars’ maiden state to be Nevada. Jay Nancarrow, a company spokesman, said the project was still very much in the testing phase.

[mc84_zz4]

I guess we are in violent agreement then.... :cheers:

[parsonsj]

You bet! :cheers:

[Derek69SS]

...the smarts and situational recognition are the setback.

How is that any different than the average driver? :lol:

[Tony_SS]

Google will sell a fleet of traffic patrol robocars to your local city to detect and enforce violations. Your smartphone will alert you $386 has been deducted from your bank account for failing to use your signal on a left hand turn.

[406 Q-ship]

How is that any different than the average driver? :lol:

I was thinking the exact samething......:lol:

[showa]

Would be nice to program them NOT to speed up when you are passing them......