Supply and demand on classics?

[Lessk]

I was curious how you guys felt about the future of our hobby.

The way I see it, with gas prices going the way they are, many people who can't afford their cars anymore will start to sell them off. And if there be many more cars available then the demand, supply and demand kicks in and the value goes down so people can get them sold.

How do you feel about this as a foreseeable future?

I realize the value is not what the hobby is about. But it is an asset and an investment. Just about the only thing I own is my '69 Camaro. Everything else is on a loan.

[Young Gun]

i think more cars will simply sit in garages more, they wont necessarily get sold, they are just gonna sit and wait...most people realize these old cars are worth something, they wont ssell them just because of gas prices...they can make a lot more selling them in a few years with age...

[Gordz32]

I think 4 most people these cars are not there daily drivers. And most likely people who go as far as we do into the hobby are going to leave there muscle cars as a last resort to sell if they need money. Hopefully the economy will stimulate in the next couple of years and get back up. The truth Nobody knows. But the only guys that will actually spend the money on toys will be the people thast aren;t affected by the times. I' wouldn't sell anything right now. Muscle cars are a icon and I don't think it will go down the drain at all.

[Nine Ball]

It just depends, similar to the housing market. If you made an impulse buy and paid way too much for your car, then you might be screwed for the next 10 years.

Unless you get out there and drive the car and enjoy it. That has far more value than just dollars in most cases.

[1969CamaroRS]

The simple fact is for the classics they aren't made anymore. Certainly for some cars that are not as rare or desirable the prices are going to drop and be a long time before they come back up to what they were (like just like some houses).

But the true classics and highly desirable collectible cars aren't going to drop that much and will recover that lost value pretty quickly.

I think for most of us we are looking to have fun with the hobby and not necessary to turn a quick profit so the market price fluctuations aren't going to matter much. In fact if prices drop all the better, it will let more people into the hobby :)

[justasquid]

I for one am not selling my car. It took a long time to find the project I wanted to invest in.

I do wonder though. With the economy the way it is, at least in michigan, ( My facility announced its closure last week) times are going to get tough for a lot of people. I can see the "un-necessary" items in peoples lives being sold off. But the classic/muscle cars will not suffer as far as prices go. As long as there are things like Barret Jackson driving the prices up, there will be buyers. thats kind of the thing with cars. most people will travel half way around the world to get the car they want. So, no matter how the economy is in any given area, there is always an area doing well.

Although, to play devils advocate, a little check of reality would be nice. There are alot of cars out there way overpriced.

But then again, your car is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it.

[bigvegan]

Generally speaking, I'd bet prices for the average classic will go down substantially over the next few years.

Six-figure rides by name pros / with exotic engines (TT-LS7s, etc.), will probably do OK, but the sub-$70k range will probably get hit pretty hard.

Let's face it, this is a hobby just like any other, and in a tight economic climate, the toys are the first things to go, especially if they need to be refilled at $4 a gallon and/or they're being financed with a home equity line of credit on a home that's now upside down on the mortgage.

If you follow the housing bubble blogs (doctorhousingbubble.com, thehousingbubbleblog.com), it looks like the bottom may not be reached until 2011-2012ish.

Long story short, I'd bet the next few years are going to be a GREAT time to pick up some good projects (even now, craigslist has some pretty sweet deals if you keep your eyes open), but selling for top dollar is going to get a bit trickier if you're not selling something rare and original.

On the plus side, if the dollar keeps going into the toilet, China's going to have to revalue their currency and their exports will get more expensive, meaning American manufacturing may start to come back.

[pchdrive]

I was just talking to my engine builder here in San Jose,CA today. He gave me a mixed report. Personally he says he is still busy. But he also said he's getting more calls lately from guys bailing on their projects, looking to sell. So bigvegan, you are right on. There will be more projects coming on the market. Could be a great time to score.
The market for finished cars will be the one to watch closely over the next 2 years.

[absintheisfun]

I think that no matter what gas prices do, this hobby will stay alive. Many of these posts refer to "investing" whether it is time, money or interest in the the restoration/modification of a classic car.

Me personally, By the time all is said and done I'm pretty sure I will have invested 2+ years of my life, 5
0K+ in money, and many many bloddy fingers...

I don't think that after all of that I will sell my car because it now costs 10.00 per gallon of gas.

It just means that my driving time with it will be even that much more special--I will do it a little less than I did (will) when gas was 4.00/ gallon.

[Paul_J]

I'm thinking the base model cars may take a small hit but I think they are priced too high as they are so it will be a "Resetting" of the price. The SS, RS, Z-28, Hemi, etc. will hold with maybe some fluctuation as to be expected. Just as the housing market has reset in the past so will it again. Those who can weather the storm will be fine. Kinda like the stock market.

[6'9"Witha69]

Woo hoo, I may be able to buy my wife a 2nd gen soon then!!

I think the prices will go down but there will not be a flood of selling, at least not tidal wave. There will be those who keep driving and building or those who park it for a while.

One thing for sure is that since all the people will react differently there will be those in all categories, it is just what the distribution across those categories will be that remains.

[Lessk]

I figure it will have some impact so I just wondered what you guys thought. I came to this theory two years ago even. I just expected something.

The gas prices may not be the end all. It was just an example. The major thing I saw was the housing. There have been thousands of forclosures on homes the last six months. Colorado has been hit really hard I've heard.

I can easly ride the storm. I don't have to sell it. I was just curious what everyone thought. I know many of you have shops of your own.

[Vegas69]

Life is a cycle much like real estate, the economy, the weather...blah blah blah Things can't go up in value forever. They will definitley come down due to the simple fact that the economy has weakened and the home equity revolution is over.

In response to Big Vegans comment on the Real Estate market. It drives me insane to hear people talk about the bottom of the Real Estate market as a whole. It changes from state to state, zip code to zip code, and even neighborhood to neighborhood. Is the bottom when the median price quits falling or when you can buy at the lowest price??? I know what my answer is. The Las Vegas Real Estate market is going crazy again. Multiple offers on everything that is priced right in nice locations and price points. That being said the foreclosure mess is far from over and your average homeowners house will probably still come down. Sell high and buy low right?

[Lessk]

I live in Wichita, KS and it hasn't felt any impact of the morgage crisis. It's still strong.